Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?
2 comments
- Points34
- Comments20
–Rank now
#24Peak rank
2Days on list
16Score · 7d
Nov 7, 2026First seen
Rank · 7 days
On Hacker News
I've heard so much about how prediction markets are the guiding light in this dark world. But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash. Especially looking at flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model. Was this obvious to everyone else too? Can we treat them like the entertainment they are and tax them for the terrible ads?
- Points
- 34
- Comments
- 20
- Submitted by
- nuwandavek
- Posted
- Nov 7, 2026
- Site
- app.artifactbin.dev
Story details from Hacker News ↗ · linked article on app.artifactbin.dev.
Trending history
Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms? was first seen on Hacker News · Front page on Nov 7, 2026. Since then it has appeared in 75 checks on 2 different days, across 3 lists (Hacker News · Front page, Hacker News · Show HN, Hacker News · Show HN · this week). Its best position was #24 of 30, reached on Nov 7, 05:52 UTC. It dropped off the list after Nov 8, 13:50 UTC.
Rank history
Position on Hacker News · Front page at every check (lower is better).
Last 14 days
Best rank per day (UTC).
24
Oct 26today
Metric history
Platform metric as reported by Hacker News.
Where it trended
| List | Best | Days | Checks | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hacker News · Front page | #24 | 1 | 5 | |
| Hacker News · Show HN | #1 | 2 | 46 | |
| Hacker News · Show HN · this week | #28 | 2 | 24 |
From the discussion
A few top-level comments from Hacker News, shortened. Read the full thread on Hacker News.
We should permanently rename "prediction markets" to "betting markets". People linked to them came up with the "prediction" nonsense to sound modern and technological as a way to dissociate themselves from the life/family destroying gambling of old. But they are gambling, pure and simple, with no value to society.
What’s with the mouse cursors? I can barely read this on mobile because it’s covered with “guest” pointers
I really think the main factor in determining if prediction markets are valuable is their predictions from outside election day. Once the “blue tsunami” was “expected” most of the markets shot overwhelmingly in one direction as the night wrapped up. You need to have a boundary for comparison that isn’t influenced by…
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Questions
Is Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms? trending on Hacker News right now?
Not at the moment. It was last on the list on Nov 8, 13:50 UTC, after 2 days of trending.
What is the highest rank Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms? reached?
#24 on Hacker News · Front page, on Nov 7, 05:52 UTC. Trendoday checks this list every 15 minutes.
How long has Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms? been trending?
It was first seen on Nov 7, 2026 and has been on the list on 2 days (75 checks) since.
How much discussion did it get on Hacker News?
34 points and 20 comments; submitted by nuwandavek on Nov 7, 2026.